Vote-by-mail trends in three critical battleground states are signaling a seismic shift heading into the 2024 election, and it’s great news for one party in particular…Republicans. Data from Decision Desk HQ shows that the edge Democrats enjoyed in 2020’s mail-in voting has dramatically shrunk in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, three states that could swing the election. Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, called it “great news” for Republicans and President Trump.
In 2020, Democrats dominated mail-in voting, a crucial factor in Joe Biden’s victory. But this time around, the data paints a different picture. The Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests has plummeted by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina, and a whopping 35% in Pennsylvania. For Republicans, this shift could change the entire playbook, giving them a better chance of securing early votes and freeing up resources for Election Day.
“It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Keady told Fox News Digital, noting that getting voters to cast their ballots early allows campaigns to redirect their efforts toward lower-propensity voters. You know, the folks who don’t always show up to the polls but can make or break an election. “Once a voter goes to vote… that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter,” Keady explained.
This matters even more in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where the Real Clear Politics polling averages show razor-thin margins. Kamala Harris is barely holding a lead in Pennsylvania, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina by a similarly small margin. With the Democratic advantage in mail-in voting dwindling, the GOP has a real shot at flipping these states back.
One of the most significant takeaways from this shift is that the Republican base, which has been skeptical of early and mail-in voting in the past, is starting to embrace it. “It definitely signals that… the base has adopted, kind of being able to accept that early voting is a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” Keady said.
This could be a game-changer. In 2020, Democrats had a massive advantage by getting their voters to use mail-in ballots, but now the GOP is playing catch-up—and they’re closing the gap fast. If this trend holds, it could swing the outcome of another tight election in favor of the Republicans. The ground game just got a whole lot more interesting.
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