CNN has released its first poll following Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, showing that Vance had the edge in the eyes of nationwide voters. Despite an initial assumption that Walz would perform better, the poll revealed Vance won 51% to 49%, a narrow margin but a clear victory. What makes the result even more striking is that the poll was conducted with a sample skewed five points in favor of Democrats, tipping the scale in Walz’s favor.
CNN rushed to get the post-debate poll out, revealing that the survey was conducted among registered voters who watched the debate and claimed to be “likely voters.” According to CNN’s David Chalian, the poll reflected a fairly balanced political mix: one-third Democrat, one-third Republican, and one-third independent voters. Despite this, Vance’s performance outshone Walz, even though 54% of viewers originally predicted that Walz, Kamala Harris’s running mate, would perform better.
Chalian explained that Vance exceeded expectations while Walz underperformed. Going into the debate, Walz was expected to win, especially with pre-debate sentiment in his favor. However, once the dust settled, it became clear that Vance had gained ground in the minds of voters.
CNN’s post-#VPDebate poll had JD Vance winning the debate by 1% — 51% to 49% — despite the polling sample being FIVE points skewed to Democrats pic.twitter.com/zlg2IvUxaC
— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) October 2, 2024
The debate itself was anticipated to be a heated showdown, especially given Vance’s aggressive approach in past campaign stops, including his accusation that Walz had “stolen valor” by campaigning on a rescinded military title. Vance also questioned Walz’s connections with China during the debate, which Walz acknowledged as a “knucklehead” decision not to clarify sooner. Meanwhile, Walz tried to hit back by branding Vance and President Trump as “weird,” though this line didn’t seem to have the impact his campaign may have hoped for.
While the debate didn’t turn into the expected brawl, both candidates had their moments. Walz’s supporters praised his measured responses on gun control and immigration, but it was Vance who appeared to connect better with voters. By the end, Vance had not only surpassed expectations but gained more ground, proving his ability to hold his own on the national stage.
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