Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign is facing a *massive* wake-up call after a new poll from the Arab American Institute (AAI) shows her in a dead heat with Donald Trump among Arab American voters. Yes, you read that right: a dead heat. Forty-two percent of Arab Americans are backing Trump, while Harris pulls in just 41%. For a voting bloc that has traditionally leaned Democrat, this is a big red flag for Harris’ team—and it’s all thanks to the Biden Administration’s botched handling of the Gaza crisis.
The numbers paint a clear picture. Arab Americans, long seen as a reliable Democratic base, are now split evenly between the two parties—38% identifying as Democrats and 38% as Republicans. This is a remarkable shift from just last year when Democratic identification within this community cratered to an embarrassing 23%. Sure, the party’s made up some ground since then, but they’re still well below their historical dominance. And Harris isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire with this crowd, either.
Why? One word: Gaza. A staggering 81% of Arab American voters say the ongoing Gaza crisis is crucial to their 2024 vote. Jobs and the economy still top the list overall, but Gaza comes in hot as the second most important issue. It’s especially significant for Arab American Democrats, who feel let down by the administration’s weak stance on the conflict. Many see Biden and Harris as not doing nearly enough to support Palestinian civilians trapped in the violence. And let’s be honest, who could blame them?
Back in 2020, Arab Americans gave Joe Biden 59% of their vote, but today, Harris is trailing that by a whopping 18 points. She’s managed to recover some of the ground Biden lost, but at 41%, she’s still got a long way to go. And if Harris really wants to sway this critical group, she better start listening. The poll suggests her support among Arab American voters could shoot up to 60% if she came out swinging for an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Gaza. Trump would see a similar boost to 55% if he did the same. Clearly, both campaigns have an opening here.
On top of all this, enthusiasm is cratering. Only 63% of Arab Americans are pumped to vote in 2024, way down from their historically high turnout rates. Among the younger crowd, it’s even worse—just 55% are excited to hit the polls. Harris can’t afford to let these voters slip away.
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