There’s a storm brewing in the political landscape, and it’s got MSNBC in a tailspin. Kamala Harris has announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate for the upcoming election, and the choice has left political analysts scratching their heads. Even MSNBC’s primary political analyst, Steve Kornacki, couldn’t hold back his skepticism.
Kornacki took to social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) to voice his confusion, arguing that Walz doesn’t offer the much-needed “boost” Harris needs to outdo President Trump in the polls. But why is Kornacki, known for his data-driven insights, so pessimistic about this selection? Let’s delve into it.
Firstly, let’s crunch some numbers. Kornacki zeroed in on Minnesota’s 2022 gubernatorial race, where Walz had a tough time with blue-collar, working-class voters – the very voters Democrats have been losing to Republicans in vital swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. According to Kornacki’s analysis, Walz’s performance in the 2022 race shows he failed to make significant headway in these communities. In 25 Minnesota counties where over 75% of white residents don’t hold a four-year degree, Walz’s loss margins in 2022 echoed President Trump’s levels of support in the 2020 election. Take rural Mower County for instance; Walz saw a modest margin of -3%, but things spiraled downwards fast in Morrison County, where his margin crashed to an alarming -52%.
The results of Walz's '22 GOV race in MN don't suggest he provides an obvious boost with the blue collar voters Dems have been shedding in WI/MI/PA: https://t.co/knKPzbd05E
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) August 6, 2024
Kornacki highlighted that insiders speaking to Politico are describing Harris’s choice of Walz as the “path of least resistance.” In other words, Walz’s selection seems more like a safe bet to dodge controversy rather than a strategic move to win over crucial voter demographics.
But Walz’s shortcomings aren’t limited to blue-collar voters. Even in more liberal counties, his support hasn’t budged. Since 2020, Walz’s levels of support in Minneapolis’s Hennepin County and several other areas have remained static. Kornacki pointed out that in two of these counties, Walz trails a generic Republican by six and seven percent, respectively. These are more highly educated areas that have trended towards Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden since 2012.
So what does this all mean for Kamala Harris? Kornacki’s data suggests that while Walz might solidify support among college-educated white voters, he does little to improve her standing among working-class whites. This is crucial as Harris has seen a surge in support among Black voters, who previously showed unprecedented levels of favorability towards President Trump for a Republican candidate since the Civil Rights era.
Meanwhile, President Trump hasn’t wasted any time questioning Harris’s motives and strategies. During a recent trip to Atlanta, Harris was criticized for delivering her stump speech with an exaggerated Southern twang, which Trump pointed out as a clear attempt to pander to the local electorate.
While Kamala Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as her running mate may have been intended as a safe choice, Kornacki’s analysis paints a grim picture of its potential impact. Without significant gains among blue-collar voters, this duo might find themselves facing an uphill battle against President Trump.
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