Ann Selzer, once hailed as the most accurate pollster in Iowa, has announced her retirement following a stunning misfire in the 2024 election. Selzer, whose final poll predicted a victory for Kamala Harris in the Hawkeye State, missed the mark by a staggering 16 points as President Trump carried the state by a comfortable 13-point margin. The race was called less than an hour after polls closed, leaving many Democrats and pundits scratching their heads over how the gold-standard Iowa Poll got it so wrong.
Selzer’s last poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register, projected Harris winning Iowa with 47% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. The result sent shockwaves through political circles, generating a wave of optimism among left-wing commentators who saw it as a bellwether for a broader Democratic surge in the rust belt. The poll’s findings were quickly amplified by Democrats eager to believe that a Harris win in Iowa could signal a death knell for Trump’s campaign.
However, the actual outcome was far from what Selzer had predicted. Trump’s 13-point victory in Iowa was one of the night’s earliest results, underscoring the extent of the poll’s miss. In an uncharacteristically candid moment, Selzer acknowledged the failure, calling it a “big miss.” She suggested that the optimistic poll might have inadvertently galvanized Republican voters who feared an unexpected upset. “We may have actually energized and activated Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory,” Selzer admitted.
The Des Moines Register and its parent company, Gannett Media, have pledged to revamp the poll in the aftermath of the misfire. Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett, told CNN that the poll would “evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment.” Roberts acknowledged the disappointment from readers and the public, stating, “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.”
Selzer’s tenure with the Des Moines Register began in 1987, and her firm, Selzer & Co., has been at the helm of the Iowa Poll since 1997. Prior to the 2024 election, Selzer’s polling was widely regarded as the most reliable in the state. She accurately predicted major upsets, such as Barack Obama’s decisive win in Iowa in 2008, and was rarely off the mark in presidential cycles. The 2024 poll, however, stands as a significant blemish on an otherwise stellar career.
In a farewell op-ed published by the Des Moines Register, Selzer explained that her decision to retire was made well before the 2024 polling mishap. “Over a year ago, I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired,” she wrote. Reflecting on the nature of her work, Selzer remarked, “Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist.”
The Register’s executive editor, Carol Hunter, also addressed the polling debacle in a separate column, acknowledging the need for change. “Our intention is to reimagine how to best capture public sentiment and opinion among Iowans,” Hunter wrote. “The Register needs to find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
With Selzer’s departure, the future of the Iowa Poll remains uncertain, and the paper faces the challenge of rebuilding trust and maintaining its once-sterling reputation in the ever-evolving landscape of political polling.
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